CEDAR RAPIDS - The key to winning the Iowa Caucus is a well-organized operation that can turn out voters and keep them committed.
The process begins at 7 p.m. local time. Campaigns are asking voters to leave their home in the cold and wet to go to a precinct to write down their candidate's name on a piece of paper. It takes organization and reach to convince enough voters to do this. Caucus goers will hear five minute speeches from representatives of the campaigns, and then they turn in their votes. The whole process lasts an hour.
Campaign Reviews:
Romney - Definitely most organized throughout Iowa. Signs are everywhere. His people are everywhere. Major phonebanking operations in homes and in large spaces across the state. Even low-level volunteers know what's going on and what to do next. Unclear whether all the supporters and volunteers are Iowa residents or from out of state. We're hearing lots of volunteer are coming from surrounding states. Unknown whether all this effort translates to votes, but definitely the best organized operation.
Huckabee - Pasionate volunteers, but smaller in numbers. Unclear how much of that passion will translate into votes in the caucus. Huckabee lacks statewide elected Republicans support in Iowa. Certainly drawing most support from social conservatives and single-issue voters. The campaign seems to be depending on third-party support to match the efforts of Romney campaign.
Paul - Citizens of Iowa are buying radio ads on behalf of the campaign. Home-made signs are everywhere. The campaign appears to have no idea who's conducting this activity or whther they plan to control or organize. Think Wild West campaigning. We expect to see ad-hoc Get Out the Vote rallies. Could be a surprise showing if the supporters organize outside each caucus and vote.
McCain - Few signs. No major rallies today. Not much presence. We expect to see speakers at each caucus, but minimal Get Out the Vote efforts.
Giuliani - Few signs outside the major population centers. Not much organization present on the ground. We expect to see speakers at each caucus, but minimal Get Out the Vote efforts.
Thompson - No signs. No rallies. Not much Get Out the Vote effort detectable. We expect to see speakers at each caucus, but minimal Get Out the Vote efforts.
The Iowa Caucus certainly isn't important for gaining delegates. It's important for gaining the press bump and momentum for going to New Hampshire where McCain and Romney are strong. Win in Iowa would be helpful to Huckabee.
If Romney doesn't win, it will be a surprise.
